The Mayan civilization thrived between 250 to 900 AD. The Popol Vuh describes the gods first creating three failed worlds, followed by a successful fourth world in which humanity was placed. In the Maya Long Count, the previous world ended after 13 b'ak'tuns, or roughly 5,125 years. The Long Count's "zero date"was set at a point in the past marking the end of the third world and the beginning of the current one, which corresponds to 11 August 3114 BC. This means that the fourth world will also have reached the end of its 13th b'ak'tun, or Mayan date 13.0.0.0.0, on December 21, 2012. In 1957, Mayanist and astronomer Maud Worcester Makemson wrote that "the completion of a Great Period of 13 b'ak'tuns would have been of the utmost significance to the Maya". There is a suggestion that Armageddon would overtake the degenerate peoples of the world and all creation on the final day of the 13th b'ak'tun. Thus our present universe would be annihilated in December 2012 when the Great Cycle of the Long Count reaches completion."
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_phenomenon)
1) Why is this example a demonstration of "pseudoscience"? Describe the evidence of why this is a good example.
Pseudo-scientific hypotheses are not testable. Due to fact that the hypothesis is predicting one event that will occur in the future, something we cannot simulate in the lab, there is no scientific way to test if the apocalypse will occur. Because it is something that has never happened in the past, there is no evidence from previous investigations that this could occur. The 2012 phenomenon is a good example of pseudoscience because it is vague. According to the Mayans, on Dec 21, 2012 there will be a destruction of the fourth world and creation of the fifth world. Because we have no detailed account of what they really believed would happen, the prediction is extremely vague.
2) Are there any legitimate scientific claims?
There are scientific claims that the planets will align on Dec 21, 2012, according to astrology studied by both the Mayans and modern scientists, but this does not indicate the apocalypse will occur. There iis no scientific evidence that the apocalypse will occur.
3) What are the claims that are either not possible or very difficult to support?
One claim that is difficult to support is that the end of the Mayan calendar indicates the end of the world (according to the Mayas). This is because the civilization was wiped out thousands of years ago, and therefore we only have a small quantity of artifacts, and historians or Mayanist scholars can only draw a limited number of conclusions from these artifacts. The conclusions are not necessarily true as different artifacts could be used for different purposes than those assumed. The language is also extremely difficult to understand and only a handful of scholars claim to be able to read it. There is no guarantee that the scholars are decoding the intended message (in this case the symbols indicating dates on a calendar and written religious documents concerning the fourth world).
It is impossible to support the claim that the world will end through divine intervention because humans do not have direct connections with the Mayan gods and therefore cannot tell if the gods exist and will perform such an apocalypse.
4) Why do you think people might "fall for" this particular claim?
It is known that the Mayans were scientifically and mathematically advanced for their time, and were able to develop calculations and technology. Therefore, people today think it is probable the Mayan prediction is correct because they trust the civilization's expertise. Because we have technology that allows us to verify the prediction about the planet alignment, this alignment does not necessarily indicate an apocalypse.
Great discussion! I really enjoyed reading this :)
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